Here's NOAA's 2018-2019 winter weather forecast

NOAA predicting mild winter in New England – Boston News, Weather, Sports

El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing.

El Nino tends to generate an active subtropical jet stream that would hike precipitation across the southern half of the country, including in Southern California, where beneficial rains could swiftly morph into threatening flooding and mudslides. In the Mid-Atlantic region, the amount of snow has depended on the strength of El Nino.

ME has strong odds to be warmer than usual this winter.

Halpert said this El Nino is likely to be a weak one.

The El Nino year is not expected to be as strong as the 2015-16 event that brought significant snowfall. It is expected to be weaker than the El Nino that developed during the 2015/2016 winter.

The Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley all have an equal chance to see below, near or above average temperatures. Alaska has a 40% chance of increased precipitation this year, matching Florida, parts of Texas, and other states across the south, according to the forecasters. The Pacific Northwest, in particular, has high odds of a mild winter.

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Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the USA, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

That's the message from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, which released its 2018-19 winter outlook report Thursday - coincidentally, on the day many Mainers woke up to their first dustings of snow for the season.

If NOAA's outlook holds true and much of the nation is milder than normal, it will mark the fourth straight warmer-than-normal winter for the Lower 48. This change in sea surface temperature has a wide range of effects on seasonal weather patterns across the globe, but in the USA, an El Niño typically means warmer winter temperatures, and higher levels of precipitation in certain regions of the country. It ranked as the sixth-warmest winter on record, and everywhere, except the Pacific Northwest, was warmer than normal.

"We fall either way during the course of the winter", Charleston National Weather Service Meteorologist Megan Kiebler said.

It is also predicting lots of snow "for the Great Lakes states, Midwest, and central and northern New England, with the majority of it falling in January and February".

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